Current Economic Climate Dampens CEO Confidence [Q2 2026 Vistage CEO Index]

While CEO confidence has climbed out of that trough of last year’s low in Q2 2025, the slow descent in confidence continued this quarter, and the causes run deeper than the usual macro headwinds. The Vistage CEO Confidence Index declined to 84.2 in Q2 2026, down 3 points from 87.2 in Q1, but ahead of last year’s recent low of 77.2. Looking across the last 2 years of data, we see a new status quo emerge.

According to analysis of the Q2 2026 survey, which captured responses from 1,351 CEOs of small and midsize businesses, burnout is now a defining feature of the leadership environment; 70% of CEOs report experiencing it at least occasionally, and 28% say it happens frequently or daily.

That is not a seasonal complaint. Building uncertainty has had consequences, and this is the backdrop for this quarter’s analysis.

Pessimism About Current Economic Conditions Grows

The sharpest move this quarter is CEOs’ assessment of the economy compared to a year ago. Only 19% of CEOs say conditions have improved, down from 26% last quarter. Even more significant is that 45% of CEOs report that conditions have worsened, up 13 points from last quarter. This is the most negative current-economy reading since Q2 2025, and the most significant driver in the decline of the Index this quarter.

• The forward-looking view of the U.S. economy is more nuanced. Nearly 3 in 10 CEOs (29%) expect economic conditions to improve over the next 12 months, up slightly from 27% in Q1. And fewer expect things to deteriorate (26%, down from 29%).
• Revenue expectations held relatively steady with 64% of CEOs anticipating growth in the year ahead, down just 1 point from Q1. Those who expect increased profitability slipped to 48%, down from 51%. This gap reflects the margin pressure running through nearly every industry this quarter.
• Fixed investment plans held flat with 38% planning increases. Half of CEOs (50%) plan to expand their workforce, essentially unchanged from Q1.

The economic ground today is rougher, but CEOs have not yet pulled back on their growth plans. The present feels harder than the future looks, a split that shapes how leaders are making decisions right now.

The Burnout Reckoning

As a follow up to our survey last year, we once again asked CEOs about how often they were feeling burnout or exhaustion. The results are striking: 70% of CEOs experience burnout at least occasionally, up from 68% last year. Twenty-eight percent report it frequently or daily, up from 24%. Only 8% say they never experience it, a figure that has held since last year. One member’s sentiment about burnout captures the feeling of many:

“I feel like I am working harder to stay on top of changing winds in the market, keeping up with new availability of AI, newer benefits my Team wants, wars, tariffs, tariff rebates, and, and, and…”
— Cathy Moulton, President, Thomas Wynne LP, Broomall, Pennsylvania

That trailing “and, and, and” captures something the data alone cannot. CEOs are not overwhelmed by one thing. They are overwhelmed by the accumulation; every quarter brings a new layer of complexity on top of every layer that came before. Tariff policy did not replace the AI adoption. The Iran conflict did not replace the talent challenge. Each one stacked, and CEOs have been absorbing it.

The danger is that burned-out leaders default to managing rather than leading, protecting the business they have rather than building the one they want. When 45% of CEOs say the economy has worsened and 70% are running on fumes, the risk of strategic drift is real.

Investing in the Next Generation of Leaders

One way to balance or dilute burnout is to build bench strength. Currently, 85% of CEOs are actively investing in the development of managers and leaders within their organizations, up from 75% in the Q1 2021 survey. In analysis of open-ended responses about these investments, there are 4 distinct themes.

• Peer advisory groups
• Internal development programs
• Third-party training
• One-to-one executive coaching and mentoring relationships.

CEOs are building leadership capacity because they need it to grow. As half of CEOs plan to grow their workforce, their people need to be ready to absorb that growth, make decisions closer to the customer, and handle operational complexity that used to land on the CEO’s desk. Soon, many leaders will be managing AI agents as well as people. This creates a new level of complexity for both leadership and accountability.

“We are aggressively looking at AI to defer new engineering hires. We are forecasting that we will need to do substantial raises for our current employees to stay competitive and, therefore, are trying to avoid hiring too many engineers despite the growing need we anticipate.”
— Glen Schuster, President and CEO of VedaPointe, St. Louis, Missouri

The investments in leadership development and workforce are connected. As AI absorbs certain roles and wage pressure makes every hire more expensive, the leaders already inside the organization have become even more valuable. In addition, developing leaders should be considered more than just nice-to-have; it is critical that CEOs possess the confidence and capability to delegate strategy execution effectively.

Strategic Planning: Closing the Execution Gap

As the 2030s approaches, many Vistage members are familiar with the significant economic downturn forecasted by ITR Economics. Strategic plans that span into the 2030s must consider how this event will impact both their segment and their business. This makes strategic planning more complicated, as well as more critical.

When asked about different components of their strategic planning, CEOs revealed that certain areas have more attention than others:

• 88% of CEOs say they can clearly express their competitive advantage.
• 85% have a well-articulated mission, vision, and purpose.
• 74% say their resources are aligned to their plan.
• 74% regularly measure progress against metrics and KPIs.

That 14-point gap between competitive advantage and execution discipline is where burnout takes its toll. When a CEO knows exactly where the company should go but lacks the energy or bandwidth to hold the organization accountable, the issue shifts from strategy to leadership sustainability.

Those investing in leadership development are doing the right thing. CEOs who cultivate strong leaders gain the most valuable resource in this environment: the ability to think and plan proactively rather than merely react or manage the latest crisis. CEOs should strive to not only own the strategic plan but also feel confident in the successful execution of those plans.

Avoiding the burnout trap — which can easily become the default operating mode — is an important step toward sustainable leadership.

For full Q2 2026 results, data, and analysis, visit vistage.com/ceoindex.

Download the INFOGRAPHIC here

The Q2 2026 Vistage CEO Confidence Index survey was conducted online between June 1–15, 2026, collecting responses from 1,351 CEOs and senior leaders of small and midsize businesses who are active Vistage members in CE and SB groups in the United States. The survey has been conducted quarterly since 2003, making it one of the longest-running measures of CEO sentiment among U.S. small and midsize businesses. The Q3 2026 survey will be in the field September 7-21, 2026.