Small Business Confidence Retreats as Fuel Costs Outpace Tariffs [WSJ/Vistage August 2026]

The past month knocked the wind out of the sails of small businesses, according to the latest Vistage survey of CEOs. New tariffs were announced, with some taking effect in late July and others in August. Renewed conflict in the Middle East last month pushed oil prices to their highest level in months. All this has led to the WSJ/Vistage Small Business CEO Confidence Index falling to 86.3 in August, a 5.7-point decline from July’s 92.0. And while the Index remains 1.3 points above last August, this decline has pushed it below the 12-month average of 89.6.

Shifting economic sentiment is the primary driver behind this month’s decline. Fuel prices and tariffs are both making headlines and impacting the bottom lines, fueling growing pessimism among small business leaders. Fluctuating oil prices continue to have widespread impact, while expiring tariffs are being replaced with new ones. The net result of declining economic confidence driven by increased costs? Small businesses are growing more hesitant to spend.

The percentage of small businesses planning to increase fixed investments in the year ahead dropped 7 points to 32%, while those intending to add personnel fell to 45% — the lowest level of workforce expansion since last August. This pullback in spending is designed to protect margins, as a growing proportion of small business leaders (22%) now expect profits to decline.

Despite rising economic pessimism and controlling costs, revenue projections are stable. Last month’s analysis revealed that price increases are prevalent, which protects top line revenues.

How Are Fuel Costs and Tariffs Impacting Small Businesses?

According to this month’s survey, oil prices affect small businesses more broadly than tariffs. Over 70% of small business leaders report that fluctuating oil prices have had at least a slight negative impact on their business, compared to 56% who say the same about new tariffs. New Section 301 duties on 60 countries took effect in late July, and a new tariff on select Canadian goods are set to be implemented this week. Tariffs have become an expected cost that small businesses have learned to manage, while oil and fuel prices remain unpredictable and change daily.

For businesses operating trucks, delivery vehicles, or field crews, fuel expenses immediately impact the bottom line. “Even though we have moved heavily toward battery-operated maintenance equipment over the past 7 years, we are still reliant on gasoline and diesel fuel due to our fleet of trucks and construction equipment,” says Burt DeMarche, President of Laurelrock Company in Wilton, Connecticut. “We have spent 30-40% over our budgeted fuel costs for the past 4 months which is really hitting our net profit.”

Tariffs introduce unique pressures, ranging from increased cost and rate pressures to administrative challenges. On the rate side, Erik Dunn, President of Dunn Fence in Tomball, Texas notes, “We purchase around 2 million in imported fence pickets each year. The increase in tariffs will directly impact our cost of doing business. We work with production builders. They never want our prices to go up but constantly want our prices to come down. This directly impacts our profit on each project.” Jeff Duperon, President of TNE International, LLC in Rochester, Michigan shares details on the drain on resources. “It does cause our business to requote nearly every customer. The administrative work is significant.”

Whether affected by fuel costs, tariffs or both, most small businesses are responding the same way; raising prices and passing those costs onto customers.

While small businesses have learned to manage individual cost pressures, together they create an equation that is tougher to crack. The unpredictability of fuel costs adds a new component to the uncertainty and margin pressures. As the conflict ebbs and flows and tariff negotiations continue, CEOs will need to adjust forecasts and spending accordingly.

How Are Small Businesses Supporting Hiring?

The percentage of small business leaders planning to add staff over the next 12 months fell to 45% in August, while 42% intend to maintain their current workforce. To address staffing needs, small businesses are exploring different tactics — both to fill new roles and replace those lost to attrition.

• Personal referrals and word of mouth remain the most common hiring channel by a wide margin. DeMarche explains, “Our landscape crew leaders and production managers continue to recruit through personal referrals, which provides legal, documented workers who want a trusted, ethical company to work for.”
• Social media and online job platforms are second in terms of top areas of focus.
• Small businesses are increasingly partnering with schools and other programs that offer educated and certified candidates.

Artificial intelligence (AI) is a double-edge sword when it comes to hiring. While some small businesses use AI to effectively source and screen candidates, leaders also face new challenges as more applicants leverage AI tools. Kendra Moore, President and CEO of Boston Fusion Corp in Boston, Massachusetts, notes, “We receive so many AI-generated résumés that are clearly tailored to the opening, we often can’t tell the résumés apart from each other. Too much AI slop.”

How Did Small Business Sentiment Shift in August?

Below are the 6 components ranked by size of month-over-month change.

• Fixed Investment Plans: 32% plan to increase fixed investments in the next 12 months, down from 39%, the sharpest pullback of any component this month. 14% expect to scale back, essentially unchanged month over month.
• Current Economy: 18% of small business leaders say the economy has improved compared to a year ago, down from 23% last month. 40% say conditions have worsened, up from 34%.
• Profitability Projections: 47% expect improved profitability, down from last month’s 51%, while 22% expect a decline, up from 19%. Despite this month’s pullback, expectations remain stronger than a year ago when just 43% expected improvement.
• Workforce Expansion Plans: 45% plan to add staff in the next 12 months, down from 49%. 12% plan reductions, up from 9%.
• Future Economy: 25% expect the economy to improve in the next 12 months, down from 3 points month over month, while 29% expect it to worsen, up from 21%.
• Revenue Projections: 61% anticipate revenue growth in the year ahead, down slightly from 62%. 14% expect declining revenues, up from 11%. Still, expectations remain well above where they stood a year ago, when 57% anticipated growth.

The August 2026 WSJ/Vistage Small Business CEO Confidence Index was calculated from an online survey sent to CEOs and other key leaders who are active U.S. Vistage members. The survey, conducted between August 3 and 10, 2026, collected data from 342 respondents with annual revenues ranging from $1 million to $20 million. The Index is calculated based on favorable minus unfavorable responses from this set of standard questions, plus 100, anchored to June 2012 = 100. To explore the full June 2026 WSJ/Vistage Small Business data set, visit our data center or download the infographic.

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